Malcolm Gladwell, Ed Catmull

26:30
Malcolm Gladwell: Overconfidence & Economic Crisis - Notes From All Over
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=82
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=82
 House of Cards (Cohan book)
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=132
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=132
 institutional failure, cognitive failure 
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=451
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=451
 psychological failure
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=532
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=532
 not incompetence, but over confidence
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=552
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=552
 Gallipoli Campaign 1915, Ian Hamilton (British Army officer)
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=622
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=622
 we are squandering our opportunity
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=757
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=757
 miscalibration
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=808
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=808
 illusion of control
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=863
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=863
 two different kinds of over confidence
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=917
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=917
 reach dangerous levels
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=980
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=980
 over confidence problem gets thornier
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1206
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1206
 Bill Bamber
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1315
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1315
 evolutionary biologist
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1367
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1367
 globally maladaptive
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1450
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1450
 a lot more boring
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1529
   https://youtu.be/BN4yTXGhU0Q?t=1529
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN4yTXGhU0Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN4yTXGhU0Q
The New Yorker
Published on Jul 22, 2014
 
([
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Black_Hawk_shootdown_incident

The GAO investigation also uncovered evidence that a rivalry between F-15 and F-16 pilots may have contributed to Wickson's and May's "urgency to engage hostile aircraft" but was not discussed in the USAF investigation.[66] During the GAO's investigation, USAF OPC officers confirmed that the rivalry between the F-15 and F-16 communities was particularly pronounced and intense partly due to the fact that F-16 aircraft had scored all the air-to-air combat kills in Iraq and Bosnia since the end of the Gulf War.

In addition, the identification friend or foe (IFF) systems had not functioned to identify the helicopters to the F-15 pilots.  ([ not sure if this was a technical failure, a human failure, a communication failure, a maintenance failure, an organisational failure, a system failure, a process failure, a technological dependency failure, or a combination of all those things and more or less ])  Furthermore, USAF leaders had failed to adequately integrate U.S. Army helicopter operations into overall OPC air operations.  ([ the Army is also partly responsible  for the USAF failure to integrate Army helicopter into the air operation ])

    ])

 The bankers' new clothes : what's wrong with banking and what to do about it / Anat Admanti and Martin Hellwig.
  1. banks and banking
  2. financial institutions--Government Policy
  3. financial crises--prevention
 © 2013
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-CRCgX2jIa0osQyfM3YIrcbt58kOGIZk


54:10
Ed Catmull, Pixar: Keep Your Crises Small
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2h2lvhzMDc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2h2lvhzMDc
Stanford Graduate School of Business
Published on Jul 28, 2009
 I want to start off with two questions
   why do successful companies fail?
   our central problem is not finding good people, it's finding good ideas

03:22  our central problem
03:25  is not finding good people, it's finding
03:28  good ideas

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=289
04:49   there were always problems; people felt
04:51   comfortable about coming in and
04:53   expressing the problems, we couldn't fix
04:55   every problem, but it's important to hear
04:57   them; the other thing we had was

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=524
08:44   coming out with them and we're very
08:46   aware there's a second product syndrome
08:48   where you kind of overdo in the second
08:50   one and you
08:50   and you blow it so we got somebody
https://nomorestartupmyths.com/second-product-syndrome-new-entrepreneurs-fall-victim/

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=631
        that
10:34   whole notion of controlling that
10:36   information flow pissed everybody off,
10:41   and yet there was a feeling he had to
10:43   maintain control, the key concept we
10:45   realized at that time was that we had
10:47   confused the organizational structure
10:49   with the communication structure, very
10:52   common thing that happens a lot of
10:54   companies; they are different; yes, you
10:57   must be organized; things must happen in
10:59   order; you can lose control, but
11:03   communication needs to be able to happen
11:05   between anybody in the company, at
11:08   anytime; it really is its peer-to-peer

([
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway's law

    organizations which design systems ... are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations.
    — M. Conway[2]

    [2] Melvin E. Conway, How Do Committees Invent?, Copyright 1968, F. D. Thompson Publications, Inc.
    http://www.melconway.com/Home/Committees_Paper.html
    informal version of Conway's law:  Any organization that designs a system (defined more broadly here than just information systems) will inevitably produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's communication structure. This turns out to be a principle with much broader utility than in software engineering, where references to it usually occur.
                                       organizations which design systems (in the broad sense used here) are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations.
    ])

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=737
12:13   the other question which was the
12:17   difficult one for me was why had I
12:19   missed this problem 

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=759
12:35   new people that came into an existing
12:38   structure, they accepted it, they were
12:40   used to reporting to producers, and if
12:48   you didn't like it, we only had a job for
12:50   four months, and just put up with it;
12:51   you'd move on, so there was no reason
12:54   for them the complaint; just put up with it

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=802
13:22   fundamental problems I think with
13:25   companies and that is that “success hides
13:28   problems”. it happens to a lot of us in
it happens to a lot of us in our personal lives
with our health.
when we're healthy, there may be a lot of things that
are bad for us, but our health lets us get away with
doing stuff that's bad for us.
then years later, the logic of that time doesn't hold up,
but we do that.
it happens with a lot of companies.
it happens with state, local, and national governments.
when you're healthy, and you've got the resources,
you don't need to address the problems.
they were actually very healthy, and they're
very strong.
and the problems were there, but they don't have to look
at them at that time, because they let the success
they let that get in the way of diving deep, and
finding the problems.

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=844
14:04   the problems were there
14:06   but they didn't have to look at them at
14:07   that time, they let the success and they
14:10   were successful that time they let that
14:12   get in the way of diving deep and
14:14   defining the problems; so even though I
14:18   was kind of aware of this problem, I been
14:20   caught by it, too; so just being aware of
14:22   it wasn't enough; so that the next

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1307
21:47   so I come back to the
21:53   first question, which is more important
21:55   the or what's the central problem,
21:58   finding good ideas or finding good
22:00   people; and the answer is very clear: the
22:03   idea was the same, if you have a good
22:06   idea and you give it to mediocre group
22:08   they'll screw it up; if you give a
22:11   mediocre idea to a good group, they'll
22:13   fix it or they'll throw it away, and come
22:15   up with something else

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1349
22:29   we think about ideas
22:31   for products, and it's usually thought of
22:33   as some singular thing; but the reality
22:36   is these successful movies as well
22:37   successful products have got thousands
22:40   of ideas; there's all sorts of things
22:42   necessary to make it be successful, and
22:44   you have to get most of them right to do
22:48   it, and that's why you need a team that
22:50   works well together

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1393
23:13   the goal of development is not to
23:18   find good ideas; it's to put together
23:20   teams of people that function well together

23:27   and to this day this development
23:29   department is loved by the directors,
23:31   because it's a support group; it's not
23:33   something telling them what to do; it's
23:34   not a gate; it's a support group

24:45   that 2D animation in this country was
24:49   actually shut down. cause they thought
24:50   the audience lost the taste for 2D, and
24:52   just wanted 3D; it's all nonsense; it had
24:55   nothing to do with the technology; it had to
24:57   do with the story

25:31   there are thousands of movies out there;
25:32   they're actually great idea, but they're
25:33   poorly executed; they should be remaking
25:35   bad movies. or as it happens with product,  
25:39   the ones that do better aren't
25:40   those and just copy somebody else's good
25:42   product. they actually take the thing
25:43   that's going wrong and fix that

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1551
25:51   they could
25:52   copy the technology, but they couldn't
25:55   copy the process we were used to come up
25:58   with a story

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1575
26:15   so we instituted a process of doing post
26:20   mortems after every movie, trying to do a
26:22   deep analysis. the first post mortems
26:24   were very successful. we worked very hard
26:27   to make sure people were safe. they
26:29   didn't get shot for pointing out
26:30   problems. and everybody got a lot out of
26:34   them. they valued them greatly. 

26:36   so we're off to a good start, but then it
26:39   go on to the next post-mortem. people
26:42   began to game the system. 

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1650
27:30   so we what we found is we have to
27:33   change the way we do the post-mortems
27:35   every single film. because the next film
27:38   they'll game it. but if we can change it
27:40   in the right way, then it will work.

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=1718
28:38   so let me summarize a few things we've
28:41   learned: one is the constant review.
28:44   second is it must be safe for people to
28:46   tell the truth.
28:48   third is the communication should not
28:51   mirror the organizational hierarchy.
28:54   people and how they function is more
28:57   important than ideas, and do not let
28:59   success mask problems. do a deep assessment.

29:53   everybody says the stories the
29:57   most important thing, even if the story
29:59   was drivel; it might be true that it is
30:05   true, but it doesn't affect behavior.

32:42   the phrase is important in this
32:45   community it just doesn't have any
32:46   effect on behavior. 

32:48   once one can
32:54   articulate an important idea into a
32:57   concise statement, then one can use this
33:01   statement, and not have to have the fear
33:02   of changing behavior.
        I just I see this over and over again.

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=2034
we're always missing something that is important
So let me return to the first question.
   why do successful companies fail?

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=2069
The falling takes place slow, but the collapse is quick.
 You have to do constant assessment.
 You have to look for the hard truth.

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=2086
I think the curse is on the people that don't listen, right?
We have to be the ones who are looking for it all the time.
and when we hear things, evaluate it, “Is it right?”

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=2101
35:01   but there are two fundamental kinds of
35:02   crises. one is that you don't like what
35:07   you see. so you have to make changes. now
35:11   the fact that you make changes is is not
35:13   in and of itself a crisis. that's just
35:15   hard work. what makes a crisis is there a
35:18   lot of people with a vested interest and
35:20   with positions. and you've got to
35:22   actually rearrange things, and it's and
35:24   it's people butting up against each
35:26   other. and that's a hard thing to do. it's
35:28   an emotional thing to do.
35:30   but you do that, and you end up making a
35:33   better film.

https://youtu.be/k2h2lvhzMDc?t=2380
39:41   Ghana who's he was brilliant, and he is
39:44   extremely good at getting taking facts,
39:48   in teasing out important information, and
39:50   you present that important information,
39:52   really concise ways, and just it's things
39:54   that people didn't see before.
39:55   so the fact they see that means they
39:58   want to participate.


news release
8 June 2012
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/news/2012/june/tails-of-the-unexpected-paper-by-andy-haldane

speech
Tails of the unexpected
paper by
Andrew G Haldane, and Benjamin Nelson
Given at “The Credit Crisis Five Years On:  Unpacking the Crisis”, conference held at the University of Edinburgh Business School, 8-9 June
8 June 2012
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2012/tails-of-the-unexpected
For Taleb, the origin of this mistake was the ubiquity in economics and finance of a particular way of describing the distribution of possible real world outcomes.  For non-nerds, this distribution is often called the bell-curve.  For nerds, it is the normal distribution.  For nerds who like to show-off, the distribution is Gaussian. 

([
   7:00
   The recurrence of complex financial crises
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ipOqyt4254
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ipOqyt4254
   Decisions in a Complex and Uncertain World MOOC
   Published on Feb 23, 2015

    ])

1:52:09
Neuroscience 2013 Dialogues Between Neuroscience and Society: The Creative Culture
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=543
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=543
start of talk
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=375
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=375
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwajgXkaOoo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwajgXkaOoo
59:03   thank you very much
Society for Neuroscience
Published on Jan 23, 2014
Ed Catmull, president of Pixar and Walt Disney Animation Studios, spoke about creativity at Neuroscience 2013. 
([ telling story is a way of communicating,       ])
([ teaching, and connecting with emotion          ])
([ the magician, the illusionist                  ])
([ we are the one that is creating the illusion   ])
([ the magician is taking advantage of knowing    ])
([ how we - meaning the brain - create illusion   ])
([ this is what we do with films                  ])
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=2771
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=2771
([ stochastic self-similarity                     ])
([ stochastic self-similarities                   ])
([ stochastic self-similar (sss) random processes ])
([ stochastic self-similar processes              ])
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=2428
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=2428
([ but here is the trick, if any one of those     ])
([ group wins, we loose                           ])
([ that's the balance you has to have             ])
([ and you gotta understand that                  ])
([ and the goal in a lot of group is to win       ]) 
([ if anyone of them win, we loose                ])
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=5497
https://youtu.be/fwajgXkaOoo?t=5497