MIT Professor Destroys Entire DAVOS Panel, Silences Confused Panel Host
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8akySjXuOAs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8akySjXuOAs
The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder
Published on Jan 26, 2019
MIT Professor Erik Brynjolfsson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Brynjolfsson
http://www.economicsofinformation.com/
http://ccs.mit.edu/papers/CCSWP130/ccswp130.html
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation†
David H. Autor
https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563
p.4
But those concerned about automation and employment are quick to point out that past interactions between automation and employment cannot settle arguments about how these elements might interact in the future: in particular, the emergence of greatly improved computing power, artificial intelligence, and robotics raises the
possibility of replacing labor on a scale not previously observed. There is no fundamental economic law that guarantees every adult will be able to earn a living solely on the basis of sound mind and good character. Whatever the future holds, the present clearly offers a resurgence of automation anxiety (Akst 2013).
p.6
An iconic representation of this idea is found in the O-ring production function studied by Kremer (1993).1 In the O-ring model, failure of any one step in the chain of production leads the entire production process to fail. Conversely, improvements in the reliability of any given link increase the value of improvements in all of the others.
p.6
Analogously, when automation or computerization makes some steps in a work process more reliable, cheaper, or faster, this increases the value of the remaining human links in the production chain.
p.8
In these models, the fundamental threat is not technology per se but misgovernance; an appropriate capital tax will render the technological advance broadly welfare-improving, as these papers stress. Thus, a key takeaway is that rapid automation may create distributional challenges that invite a broad policy response,
a point to which I will return.
p.23
Specifically, I see two distinct paths that engineering and computer science can seek to traverse to automate tasks for which we “do not know the rules”: environmental control and machine learning. The first path circumvents Polanyi’s paradox by regularizing the environment, so that comparatively inflexible machines can function semi-autonomously. The second approach inverts Polanyi’s paradox: rather than teach machines rules that we do not understand, engineers develop machines that attempt to infer tacit rules from context, abundant data, and applied statistics.
p.23
Most automated systems lack flexibility—they are brittle.
p.23
The distinction between assembly line production and the in-situ repair highlights the role of environmental control in enabling automation. Engineers can in some cases radically simplify the environment in which machines work to enable autonomous operation, as in the familiar example of a factory assembly line. Numerous examples of this approach to environmental regularization are so ingrained in daily technology that they escape notice, however. To enable the operation of present-day automobiles, for example, humanity has adapted the naturally occurring environment by leveling, re-grading, and covering with asphalt a nontrivial percentage of the earth’s land surface.9
p.24
Perhaps the least recognized—and most mythologized—is the self-driving Google Car. Computer scientists sometimes remark that the Google car does not drive on roads, but rather on maps. A Google car navigates through the road network primarily by comparing its real-time audio-visual sensor data against painstakingly hand-curated maps that specify the exact locations of all roads, signals, signage, and obstacles. The Google car adapts in real time to obstacles, such as cars, pedestrians, and road hazards, by braking, turning, and stopping. But if the car’s software determines that the environment in which it is operating differs from the environment that has been pre-processed by its human engineers—when it encounters an unexpected detour or a crossing guard instead of a traffic signal—the car requires its human operator to take control. Thus, while the Google car appears outwardly to be adaptive and flexible, it is somewhat akin to a train running on invisible tracks.
These examples highlight both the limitations of current technology to accomplish nonroutine tasks, and the capacity of human ingenuity to surmount some of these obstacles by re-engineering the environment in which work tasks are performed.
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs-david-autor-explains-the-history-and-future-of-workplace-automation
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? | David Autor | TEDxCambridge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCxcnUrokJo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCxcnUrokJo
TEDx Talks
Published on Nov 28, 2016
2:37
the O-ring principle
https://www.constructionspecifier.com/for-the-want-of-a-horseshoe-nail-identifying-causes-of-tile-failure/
A folk rhyme often attributed to Benjamin Franklin describes the unintended outcome of simply omitting a horseshoe nail—namely, the loss of a kingdom:
For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,
For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,
For the want of a horse the rider was lost,
For the want of a rider the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail
For want of a naile the shoe is lost, for want of a shoe the horse is lost, for want of a horse the rider is lost. (1640 George Herbert Outlandish Proverbs no. 499)[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/a_chain_is_only_as_strong_as_its_weakest_link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decay_chain
idea of “reverse salients”
Thomas P. Hughes introduced the phrase “reverse salients”, in the context of technological innovation,
http://www.roughtype.com/?p=603
Progress is held up when a reverse salient forms in some component or subsystem, but then begins again when the problem is solved – until the next reverse salient forms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_salient
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/bottleneck
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-sugar-conspiracy
The Weakest Link
A product’s vulnerabilities can point the way to lucrative new business opportunities.
by Nicholas G. Carr
November 30, 2006 / Winter 2006 / Issue 45 (originally published by Booz & Company)
https://www.strategy-business.com/article/06403?_ref=http://www.roughtype.com/%3fp=603&gko=8b829-1876-20606092
Tuning in to Technology's Past
Yesterday’s masters have much to teach
by Tom Standage January 1, 2005
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/403541/tuning-in-to-technologys-past/
Thomas Hughes suggests that as well as providing ideas and insights into why technologies succeed and fail, familiarity with the history of technology can also help innovators spot opportunities, in the form of “reverse salients,” which he defines as “components in the system that have fallen behind or are out of phase with the others.” As Edison’s electricity system expanded, for example, it became apparent that it could only supply electricity efficiently within a couple of kilometers of a generator. This reverse salient, identified by other inventors, led to the development of alternating-current distribution. Charting the development of technological systems, and spotting which parts are falling behind, can help innovators decide where to focus their efforts. Handheld devices, for example, are being held back because battery technology has not kept pace with energy demands, so several firms are now developing tiny fuel cells to power them.
"The Mess We're In" by Joe Armstrong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKXe3HUG2l4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKXe3HUG2l4
Strange Loop
Published on Sep 19, 2014
24:16
causality
a cause must always precede its effect
information travels at or less than the speed of light
we do not know that something has happened until we get a message saying that the event has happened
we do not know how things are now at a remote location, only how they were the last time we got a message from them
No comments:
Post a Comment